The Long-term Prospects of Biofuels in EU-Countries

The core objective of this paper is to analyse the economic, ecological and energetic perspectives of biofuels second generation compared to biofuels of first generation and fossil fuels in a dynamic framework up to 2050. The most important result of this analysis is that in Europe second generation biofuels might become economically competitive between 2020 and 2030. Yet, this will only be achieved if the following conditions apply: (i) achievement of significant learning effects leading to considerable lower plant costs; (ii) improvement of conversion efficiency from feedstock to fuel leading to lower feedstock prices and better ecological performance; (iii) increases in conventional diesel and gasoline prices, e.g. due to CO2 based taxes. INTRODUCTION Currently used biofuels of 1st generation (BF-1) – e.g. biodiesel from rape seed, bioethanol from wheat and maize, biomethane from manure, grass and green maize – are associated with ecological problems, high costs, low net energy yields, limited potentials, unfavourable land-use changes and competition to food production. As an alternative biofuels second generation (BF-2) – BTL (biomass to liquid), FT-Diesel, ethanol from lignocellulose, synthetic natural gas from wood – are considered as a promising option for clean energy carriers for the future. Major advantages expected are  better ecological performance: low life-cycle carbon emissions;  no associated land-use changes;  due to the fact that they are produced from lignocellulose also huge potential for feedstocks required are expected. These primary lignocellulose resources encompass: straw, corn stover, forest wood residues, wood industry residues, waste wood and short rotation copies;  if produced on large scale also economic competiveness is expected. The core objective of this paper is to investigate the energetic, ecological and economic development perspectives of BF-2 compared to BF-1 in Europe in a dynamic framework till 2050 and how this might impact market prospects. Our method of approach is based on scenarios for development of conversion efficiencies, corresponding life-cycle CO2_equ balances, scenarios of oil price and CO2-cost development and international learning rates for the corresponding conversions technologies. This work extends the analysis conducted in Ajanovic et al [1], Ajanovic et al [2], and Ajanovic et al [3]. With respect to the literature the most important analyses are summarized by Panoutsou [4]. We focus on the following categories of biofuels, 1 generation biofuels:  BD-1: biodiesel from rape seed and other oil seeds;  BE-1: bioethanol from wheat and maize;  BM: biomethane from manure, grass and green maize; 2 generation biofuels:  BD-2: biodiesel from biomass-to liquids (BTL) with Fischer-Tropsch process;  BE-2: bioethanol from lignocellulose;  SNG: biogas from synthetic gas from biomass. These biofuels are analysed with regard to the environmental impacts, costs, market prospects and potentials. This analysis is based on:  possible developments of fossil energy price levels and energy demand;  technological learning effects (based on global developments);  environment, energy and transport policies on EU level. DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE Biofuels are expected in many policy directives and scientific papers to have the potential to contribute significantly to replacing fossil fuel consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions. Indeed, in recent years biofuels first generation–BD-1, BE-1, BM – have entered the fuel market in significant amounts, see e.g. [5] and [6]. CALCULATION OF WTTFUEL NET BALANCE -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Gasoline Diesel CNG gCO2_equ/MJ WTT -Fuel Net WTT-Plus WTT Minus BE-1 SNG